Economic forecast is a study of the expected future state and development of an economy. It is used by many groups, from governments and corporations to financial markets and stock market analysts. Forecasts are based on a wide range of data inputs and assumptions, and can be used to predict inflation, interest rates, unemployment, production, prices for goods and services, and other indicators. Forecasts are also shaped by personal beliefs on how the world works and what economic policies should be employed, and differ widely from one person to the next.

There are many different methods of economic forecasting, ranging from traditional time series models to judgmental techniques using expert advice. Regardless of the method, the starting point is to gather historical data on a number of indicators, and determine their relationships with each other. This can be done by studying the pattern of these variables in time, or through regression analysis.

The current baseline forecast shows global growth slowing to 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, reflecting rising trade barriers and elevated policy uncertainty. In the US, higher tariff costs and interest rates are expected to dampen business investment, while a partial resolution of trade tensions and deregulation should boost productivity growth. Overall, global headline and underlying inflation are projected to fall in the projection period as a result of lower commodity prices. However, the pace of global growth remains much slower than in the past two decades.